Analysis of the rate of change and forecast of the future coast in Playa las Canas, Pinar del Río
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The objective of this research was to forecast the future coastline in order to determine how much land will be gained or lost in 32 years. For this purpose, a multi-temporal study of the coastline between 1956 and 2021 was carried out, using satellite images and aerial photographs. Using QGIS software tools, the rate of variation of the coastline was determined by applying the Extreme Profile Rate of Change (EPR) method, which was determined by dividing the time span by the displacement of the coastline in that time, i.e. 65 years. For the projection of the coastline, the Simple Linear Regression (LRR) method was applied, thus obtaining a range of displacement of the line within 32 years. The results obtained showed the existence of a maximum erosion rate of -0.32 m/year, and a maximum accretion rate of 0.51 m/year, revealing a predominance of cumulative processes (accretion). The LRR method revealed a range of displacement from 1.84m to 18.27m with Standard Error of Estimate (LSE) values ranging from 1.17 to 7.7, with an exception at transect 13 of 12.13. A series of graphs and maps were also obtained that allow a better appreciation of future shoreline displacement both qualitatively and quantitatively.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Those authors who have publications with this journal accept the following terms of the License Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0):
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
- Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
The journal is not responsible for the opinions and concepts expressed in the works, they are the sole responsibility of the authors. The Editor, with the assistance of the Editorial Committee, reserves the right to suggest or request advisable or necessary modifications. They are accepted to publish original scientific papers, research results of interest that have not been published or sent to another journal for the same purpose.
The mention of trademarks of equipment, instruments or specific materials is for identification purposes, and there is no promotional commitment in relation to them, neither by the authors nor by the publisher.
How to Cite
References
Alonso, Cabrera, L. L., Jiménez, J. A., Valdemoro, H. I., & Sánchez, I. (2007): Aplicación de la fotogrametría a estudios de erosión costera. XII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Teledetección, Mar del Plata, Argentina.
Chávez, J. A., & Llorente, J. C. (2019): Análisis multi-temporal de la evolución de la línea de costa en el sector norte de cayo Jutia, Santa Lucia, Pinar del Rio entre los años 2005-2019. Facultad de Ciencias Técnicas. Universidad de Pinar del Río.
Crowell, M., Leatherman, S.P. & Buckley, M.K. (1991): Historical shoreline change: Error analysis and mapping accuracy. Journal of Coastal Research. Vol. 7.
Crowell, M., Douglas, B. C. y Leatherman, S. P. (1997): On forecasting future U.S. shoreline positions: a test of algorithms. Journal of Coastal Research. Vol. 13. No. 4 (Autumn, 1997), pp. 1245-1255
Curra, E. (2012): El Procesamiento Digital de Imágenes y el análisis estadístico en la investigación de la dinámica de costas. Caso de estudio: Playas del oeste en La Habana, Cuba. Facultad de Geografía. Universidad de La Habana.
Dolan, R., Fenster, M.S., y Holme, S.J. (1991): Temporal analysis of shoreline recession and accretion. Journal of Coastal Research. Vol. 7. No. 3 pp. 723-744
Morales Esquivel, Y. (2009): Evolución de la línea de costa y su relación con la actividad antrópica. Facultad de Ciencias Técnicas. Universidad de Pinar del Río
Portuondo, Y., & Portuondo, J. (2010): La repetibilidad y reproducibilidad en el aseguramiento de la calidad de los procesos de medición. Tecnología Química. Vol. XXX. No. 2. mayo-agosto, pp. 117-121.
Tavares Corrêa. (2022): El nivel del mar y la erosión de playas en el Perú. Desafíos y perspectivas de la situación ambiental en el Perú, pp. 342-358. DOI:10.18800/978-9972-674-30-3.017 .